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A 'canary in a coal mine' or simply 'canary' is any kind of simple measure that usually shows the presence of some bad thing. Similarly a litmus test is colloquially used as to mean 'a test of any given situation existing'.

Both of these idioms are typically used for a binary determination - the thing either existing or not.

I'm looking for a similar idiom that points to a trend.

For example:

The Acme Fashion awards are a [something], hinting at what the popular fashion items will be this year.

Weather vane seems to have the right imagery - but I can't see that it's been used like this.

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  • 7
    Harbinger, clarion call, foreshadowing?
    – Yosef Baskin
    Commented Nov 25 at 0:24
  • I would think that a dead canary hints at what the unpopular fashion items might be.
    – Tinfoil Hat
    Commented Nov 25 at 2:19
  • 3
    A dead canary might be a harbinger of the hat ornaments to expect.
    – DjinTonic
    Commented Nov 25 at 2:46
  • There are some terms referring to quick and dirty tests that are not very accurate (wet finger in the air). But you want a word for something that is an accurate prediction?
    – Stuart F
    Commented Nov 25 at 13:09
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    @Edwin Apart from bellwether (also suggested here), I don't think any of the answers to that question fit the context given here (including harbinger, which was also offered here, but which doesn't actually work – a fashion award is not a harbinger of coming fashion trends).
    – Janus Bahs Jacquet
    Commented Nov 25 at 16:52

10 Answers 10

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Bellwether is used figuratively for this sense.

one that takes the lead or initiative : LEADER
also : an indicator of trends

Merriam-Webster

The term is derived from the practice of placing a bell around the neck of the lead wether (the castrated male sheep). The sound of the bell helps the shepherd know where the flock is, even when he can't see them.

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    Bellwether is the term I was looking for. I think where the term confused me is with 'wether' in my mind it had something to do with weather.
    – dwjohnston
    Commented Nov 26 at 0:41
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The Acme Fashion awards herald / are a herald of the fashion items that will be popular this year.

herald (n.)

A person (or thing) that precedes and announces the approach of another; a forerunner, precursor.
[OED online]

Something that is a herald of a future event or situation is a sign that it is going to happen or appear.
Collins

herald (v.)

To be a sign that something important, and often good, is starting to happen, or to make something publicly known, especially by celebrating or praising it:

The president's speech heralds a new era in foreign policy.
Cambridge

The herald of the trend to discover one's own potential was Aldous Huxley (1894–1963).
Lola Williamson; Transcendent in America (2010)

The prize was presented as a normal Peace Prize. ... In reality this award was very innovative and heralded an alternative approach to the prize: that it was not only systems and structures that were responsible for war, but also certain ideologies, regimes, and even people.
Geir Lundestad; 'The World's Most Prestigious Prize' (2019)

But none of them had paid special attention to the other trends noted by Marshall. It was Marshall who heralded the up-surge of the new style of profession practice.
Everett C. Hughes; The Sociological Eye (2017)

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A harbinger of future trends is something that foreshadows these trends.

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    I don't think this quite works here. A harbinger is something that metaphorically represents the thing it foreshadows, rather than merely being an early instance of it… so to speak. A swallow, for example, is a metaphorical stand-in for spring, but an animal and a season are obviously fundamentally different notions. Conversely, a fashion award and a fashion trend are quite close to being the same notion; the award is really just an early exemplar of the latter.
    – Janus Bahs Jacquet
    Commented Nov 25 at 17:02
  • @JanusBahsJacquet I don't think you are right about the metaphorical quality of the word. It is simply "something that foreshadows a future event : something that gives an anticipatory sign of what is to come". That sense fits perfectly. Indeed, it was the first word to come to my mind. The fashion show is really showing what the trends will be in the upcoming season.
    – Peter - Reinstate Monica
    Commented Nov 26 at 1:09
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One of the most common is sign. This is sense 5 of Collins:

If there is a sign of something, there is something which shows that it exists or is happening.

Another is forerunner Collins gives:

If you describe a person or thing as the forerunner of someone or something similar, you mean they existed before them and either influenced their development or were a sign of what was going to happen.

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4

Not a noun phrase, but a fairly common idiom is ‘to see which way the wind is blowing’.

For example, someone realising that they're not going to get their own way because the majority is against them might admit, ruefully, “Ah yes, I can see which way the wind is blowing…”

It's especially relevant for popular trends and other situations that are as changeable as the wind.

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  • Relatedly. something that always follows the latest trends is a weathervane.
    – Davislor
    Commented Nov 28 at 3:39
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Indicator

It's not the most figurative word that can be used here, but it fits the use case perfectly.

link

enter image description here

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If you're amenable to gen-z/meme lingo, Stonks can be used to describe something that is trending beneficially (the opposite being Stanks for if it's losing value/becoming worse). Definitely not suitable for more serious work though.

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Trajectory (n.) is a good choice for trends or progressions. Merriam Webster's definition even gives this as its preferred example.

2 : a path, progression, or line of development resembling a physical trajectory

an upward career trajectory

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Compass

Whilst it's not a particularly common idiom, it's an easily understood metaphor that seems to achieve what you're looking to achieve here.

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-1

A signpost can be referred to figuratively as an indicator of something, which can include things coming in the future. It is basically the same as a sign, but in a way encapsulates the item or event being referred to a as a single "thing". The term is wholly neutral, expressing only the ability to infer what's coming but not whether it's good or bad.

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