Is there a difference between the usage of "this" or "that" when referring back to an idea in the previous sentence?

Question

In the following two sentences, is there any difference in what "this" or "that" would indicate about the previous sentence? Would one of them be less accurate than the other?

We may run out of gasoline before the finish line. This would create a problem that isn't easily resolved.

We may run out of gasoline before the finish line. That would create a problem that isn't easily resolved.

I suspect that "that" is more useful when referring to distant things or uncertainties, whereas "this" is more useful when referring to direct, actual instances of something, but I may be wrong.

I would like to know the difference between these two words in any given situation instead of merely knowing the correct usage for this one example that I've provided.

Answer 1

This and that are demonstratives and in this context, deictic. Either may be used, depending on whether you consider yourself near the first sentence (use this) or whether you have notionally moved away from it (use that).

Demonstratives (abbreviated DEM) are words, such as this and that, used to indicate which entities are being referred to and to distinguish those entities from others. They are typically deictic, their meaning depending on a particular frame of its reference. - wikipedia

Answer 2

Hmmm. Interesting. Here’s a thought. I only set it as an answer because it is the only way I can fit it in! But I am far from confident int what follows.

You suggest ‘that’, when used to refer to a proposition just uttered, indicates something uncertain. It could be so.

To be or not to be: that is the question

It could not possibly be “this is the question”, could it? However, what about:

We will run out of gasoline: that is certain.”?

So ‘that’ can (should?) be used in contexts of both certainty and uncertainty.

So my thought is that we have here just an instance of a general rule of ‘this’ indicating greater proximity, either spatio-temporal or sentential-propositional, and ‘that’ indicating greater distance.

So, if I am certain, the gas issue is done with, not worth debating, so ‘over there’, I use ‘that’. if the question is still in play, I use ‘this’. It is, I admit, subjective.

This is what I am considering in this answer.

Aha! Here I felt I had to use ‘this’. And I felt I had to use ‘here’ rather than ‘there’. It remains in front of me.

The trouble is, ‘that’ could be used in the same context. You will still know what I mean. The only thing of which I am sure is that ‘this’ always comes after ‘that’. That cannot be doubted.