Future Perfect and Future Perfect Progressive for past assumptions

Question

I would greatly appreciate your help with resolving one doubt I have and have been struggling to clear up.

It concerns the Future Perfect's and Future Perfect Progressive's more advanced usage - expressing past assumptions.

According to: https://english.lingolia.com/en/grammar/tenses/future-perfect-simple https://english.lingolia.com/en/grammar/tenses/future-perfect-progressive

Future Perfect - assumptions about something that has probably happened

Example:

He will probably have noticed that his bike is broken.

Future Perfect Progressive - assumptions about what was happening at a certain time in the past.

Example:

There was an accident last week. The driver won’t have been paying attention to the road signs.

From the above description, it seems this usage in the simple form is more connected to the present - as in talking about what has happened by now. In the progressive form it appears to refer to any time in the past - also finished events and periods, things which happened before specific points in the past. Would this interpretation of those examples be correct? This seems to be a pretty major and unusual difference of usage between the simple and progressive form. Or perhaps Future Perfect Simple for assumptions could also work with past tenses? Would it be correct to say:

He will probably have noticed that his bike was broken.
He will probably have noticed that his bike was being stolen.

Mind you, the first two examples come from a source and are correct. I'm not looking for alternative, more common or natural, ways to express this - my question is if it would be correct to also use the past tenses with the simple form of Future Perfect to the same effect (assumptions about past events). Many thanks.

Answer 1

He will probably have noticed that his bike was broken.

This is okay I guess. I think it would make more sense like this: He will probably have noticed by now that his bike was broken.

He will probably have noticed that his bike was being stolen.

I don't think this one flies. If the stealing is taking awhile (as "was being stolen" seems to indicate), and the owner is observing the stealing taking place, then it doesn't seem to make much sense for the owner to remain passive.

You could say, however:

You might not have noticed that the infamous fruit thief of Mulberry Lane has been stealing peaches from our back garden.

Note, in "He will probably have noticed that his bike is broken," the bike is definitely broken, and the only probable thing is the guy having probably noticed it. (I wasn't sure if you were seeing it this way.)

I hope I addressed what you wanted to know.