Part of the problem is that you've given us an example that isn't representative of dialog or narrative. It looks like a sample from a technical paper. The rules often change slightly when you move into the technical world. In that world, variables often omit the article.
(1) Suppose that the belief P is formed based on sufficient evidence.
and
(2) Suppose that a belief P is formed based on sufficient evidence.
and
(3) Suppose that belief P is formed based on sufficient evidence.
...are all basically synonymous. But, having written in both worlds, there are subtle differences. Example (1) suggests having previously introduced P, but you said this is the first occurrence of the variable, so that's not it.
Example (2) suggests that the belief P represents has not been introduced.
Example (3) suggests that the belief P represents has been introduced.
So the real question here is whether or not you have previously introduced the belief represented by P.