Timeline for How infrequent is “a non-zero chance”?
Current License: CC BY-SA 4.0
13 events
| when toggle format | what | by | license | comment | |
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| Oct 29, 2018 at 1:35 | comment | added | Hellion | I agree that "non-zero" does not, in itself, imply "very close to zero". It MAY be very close to zero (e.g. one in a billion), but it may be reasonably possible (e.g. 25% or so). | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 19:12 | comment | added | Lambie | I think that in everyday speech non-zero chance really just means: there is some chance that. | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 18:48 | comment | added | gnasher729 | "non-zero probability" means any probability greater than zero, so it may happen. It may be very unlikely. Like you winning the jackpot in the lottery every week for the next year. It's not impossible. It is very, very, very unlikely. The probability is a tiny bit more than zero. That's non-zero probability. | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 18:25 | comment | added | Mari-Lou A | @jsw29 OK, 2nd and last stupid question, so what is the probability of a non-zero? | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 18:10 | comment | added | jsw29 | @Mari-LouA, if two out of five marriages end in divorce, then the probability of a given marriage ending in divorce is 0.4 (or 40%), assuming we don't now anything specific about it. If something has one in a billion chance of happening, then its probability is 0.000000001. | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 17:54 | comment | added | Mari-Lou A | @jsw29 OK time for me to ask a stupid question, so when experts say that something has a one in a billion chance of happening, or that two out of five marriages are likely to end in divorce, is that the same probability? | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 17:49 | comment | added | jsw29 | @Mari-LouA, probability of something cannot be greater than one (or 100%). Probabilities, if one thinks of them quantitatively, range from zero (i.e. impossibility) to one (i.e. certainty). Note that an event that has the probability of, say, 3%, is not at all probable. | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 17:31 | history | edited | Dan Bron | CC BY-SA 4.0 |
change "outcome" to "probability", which I believe was intended (but change it back if I'm wrong).
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| Oct 28, 2018 at 16:39 | comment | added | Mari-Lou A | If it doesn't imply a "small chance" does it mean any number is plausible? If I say that there is a non-zero chance of something happening, am I saying its probability is equal or greater to one? | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 16:22 | comment | added | lbf | a 'small chance' is what is implied to this AmE reader. | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 16:12 | comment | added | jsw29 | How exactly do the reference to quasiprobabilities help the OP? | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 16:09 | comment | added | jsw29 | It is true that non-zero does not logically entail that the probability is small; it could be anything up to 100%. However, in virtue of standard conversational conventions it does imply (in the loose, everyday sense of imply), or implicate, or suggest, that it is small. In other words, it does not convey the idea of smallness as matter of semantics, but it does convey it as a matter of pragmatics. | |
| Oct 28, 2018 at 15:46 | history | answered | Nigel J | CC BY-SA 4.0 |