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One is a complete failure, either apparent from the beginning or something that appears promising but turns out to be disappointing or worthless. A misfire, on a musket's priming pan. A fool's gold

And another is apparent success, though quickly faded, a thing or person whose sudden but brief success is not repeated or repeatable. A grain of gold in the prospector's pan, bit gold nonetheless.

To me it's quite opposite meanings. A misfire is not a success in any sense. A one-hit wonder is, despite being short-lived. Am I right that it's two different meanings? Or may be I am emphasizing too much the success part while it's the failure in the end that makes all the meaning?

Still it's rather hard for me to make a "one-hit wonder" from a misfire which is suggested as the origin in many sources (including MW by the link above). A misfire is a failure, not a success.

Could it be possible that there was actually two origins? Or, even initially being derived from muskets, it appeared to people as a reference to prospector's pan, and so the common understanding shifted from "complete failure" to "quick but shortly-lived" success?

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    They are the same. A flash in the pan has flash (good), but the short-lived success is more of a negative (bad) for having no lasting power. It's the letdown of an empty promise. Better to have less flash and more pan. Compare Aesop's moral in his Hare & Tortoise: Slow but steady wins the race.
    – Yosef Baskin
    Commented Apr 16 at 16:31
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    Your suspicion that, in the second kind of cases, you are 'emphasizing too much the success part while it's the failure in the end that makes all the meaning' will probably turn out to be the answer. Still, the question is perceptive and thoughtfully put, and it deserves a fully argued for answer.
    – jsw29
    Commented Apr 16 at 17:58
  • Where do you get "a complete failure ... apparent from the beginning" from? That's not what your link says. There has to be a flash!
    – Stuart F
    Commented Apr 16 at 21:00

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Those definitions that don't include initial success and attendant optimism are inadequate. Look how such a definition is accompanied by an example referring to initial but short-lived success:

  • flash in the pan [noun phrase]: a sudden spasmodic effort that accomplishes nothing
  • But for those working in the Irish film and TV sector, these recent achievements — however stellar — aren’t just a brief flash in the pan moment...                              Alex Ritman, Variety, 4 Mar. 2024

[Merriam-Webster]

..........................

PhraseFinder has a more accurate definition:

  • Flash in the pan: Something which disappoints by failing to deliver anything of value, despite a showy beginning.

The misfire of the musket was, after all, showy and scary. A complete failure wouldn't even have been seen.

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