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Quote:

“Because I made a blunder, my dear Watson—which is, I am afraid, a more common occurrence than any one would think who only knew me through your memoirs. The fact is that I could not believe it possible that the most remarkable horse in England could long remain concealed, especially in so sparsely inhabited a place as the north of Dartmoor. From hour to hour yesterday I expected to hear that he had been found, and that his abductor was the murderer of John Straker. When, however, another morning had come, and I found that beyond the arrest of young Fitzroy Simpson nothing had been done, I felt that it was time for me to take action. Yet in some ways I feel that yesterday has not been wasted.”

Question:

"A more common occurence than any one would think" means:

A. something more common than everyone thought happened

or

B. something very rare happened

According to the context i guess the answer should be B. But i do feel confused with such expression.

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The confusion is because "any one" is modified by a phrase that comes after "would think." The syntax could be rearranged:

[My blunders are] a more common occurrence than any one who only knew me through your memoirs would think.

Regarding your proposed paraphrases, this means "something happened that people think is very rare, but is more common than they think."

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