I'm reading an article of Pabrai. http://www.chaiwithpabrai.com/uploads/5/5/1/3/55139655/the_yellowstone_factor.pdf

There is the following line.

However, if I ascribed odds of less than 1% to Yellowstone blowing in the next 10 years, I'm covered.

What is the meaning of "I'm covered"?

At first, I read as "I am covered by misunderstanding and cannot see the true probability any more."

However, the context is like, the assuming the probability less than 1% is reasonable.

It's opposite.

I want help. Thank you.

  • 1
    Your interpretation is incorrect - "cover" can mean "adequately taken care of" and in this case that means that his guess is most likely safe. – Canadian Yankee Jun 18 at 23:38

Whether the writer is discussing insurance formally or not I think he (or she) is talking about actuarial risk which is what insurance companies use to calculate the chances of having to pay out against a given policy.

What the writer is saying is that if they assume that the risk of the Yellowstone volcano erupting in the next ten years is less than one percent that would be a reasonable figure to use in the calculation of the premium, in other words that the policy has a more than ninety nine percent possibility of making a profit over the ten year period. In other words that their risk is covered.

The writer is probably speaking metaphorically (ie no insurance policy is involved) but that is the background to the metaphor.

  • Thanks @KannE I've deleted the extraneous copy – BoldBen Jun 19 at 4:30

Based on the context of this sentence, I would interpret it as "I'm good." or "I'm going to be safe."

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