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Case 1) A : That girl with Mike. who is she? B: That would be his sister.

Case 2) A : I saw a guy who has a british accent. And he goes to your school. B : That would be Brad.

can "would" be used as a possibility ?

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    In both these examples it means 'That is who it is most likely to be.' In (2), B hasn't seen the person in question but suggests that Brad fits the description. In (1), perhaps B doesn't know Mike's sister but has reason to believe that the girl with him is her. – Kate Bunting Aug 1 at 12:19
  • Yes. It can be thought of as equivalent to If you were to ask me, I would tell you that ... It's a form of distancing oneself from taking responsibility for one's statements that modals allow. For instance, it is a much stronger assertion to say She is Mike's sister than to say She must be Mike's sister. Even if it's a strong probability, it's only a probability and not certainty. Modals are very useful that way. – John Lawler Aug 1 at 14:22

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