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I have stumbled upon it in this video. It is at 42 second.
I know things can get overwhelming when you are out of school, there are no more grades, and all of a sudden people are talking about five-year plans when it feels like you don't know what is happening in five weeks.
I am aware that the present continuous can be used to talk about future plans, but it doesn't appear to have been used in that sense. Would the meaning change if the speaker say ...what will happen...?
I am aware that the present continuous can be used to talk about future plans,
That's right.
but it doesn't appear to have been used in that sense.
That's wrong. It has been used exactly in that sense.
The quote says:
...people are talking about five-year plans when it feels like you don't know what is happening in five weeks.
In the context in which the present progressive form is used, the speaker's clearly talking about 'future plans'.
Would the meaning change if the speaker say ...what will happen...?
You could use will happen instead here, but the use of will denotes the speaker's subjective conviction rather than 'plans'. Therefore, using will wouldn't fit the context given as closely as using the present progressive does.
It's very simple - Present Continuous is also used to talk about the near future (keep in mind that near is a relative concept; what is near for some can be far for others, and so sentences can vary).
In your example, they even stress that it is the near future that they are talking about
five year plan vs in five weeks time.
And as such, when we talk about the near future we usually use the Present Continuous, while Future Simple is mostly used to talk about things that you promise.
If we took one of the most common verbs there are - go and put it together with a very common word that denotes future such as tomorrow- and the phrase next week.
A Quick Ngram search easily shows how common would be be+going vs will go.
If you don't know 'what will happen' in five weeks that describes a state of ignorance that might be temporary. In the context of the quoted sentence,'it feels like you don't know what is happening in five weeks' refers to a permanent sense of ignorance about the near future. How can anyone engage with five year plans when they feel they can't think even five weeks ahead? Not five weeks from now, five weeks from any time.
