(1) The meaning of "queer the deal"
The comments have shown considerable controversy over the correct meaning of the phrase "queer the deal".
(a) Forfeiture. Can the construction be paraphrased as 'cause a deal to not go through at all?' Then adequate linguistic substitutes could be break the deal, thwart the deal.
(b) Imperil. Does the expression mean, 'do something that might threaten a deal to go through?' In this case we could think about generic alternatives, such as jeopardize the deal, or risk the deal.
(c) Superstition. Does the saying have the specific association of a superstitious fear to ruin a basically done deal last minute? If so, we might consider jinx the deal.
(d) Meddling. Is the phrase connoted with the idea of last minute meddling to increase one's cut of a deal? If this is the case, we might pick a phrase like sabotage the deal, stymie the deal.
(2) Naturally occurring examples
An investigation of naturally occurring examples of "queer the deal" can help us find out which paraphrase reflects current usage.
So, I googled the construction, and randomly selected 5 examples from the results list. I did not cherry-pick or exclude examples. I then decided whether they support the forfeit, imperiling, superstitious or meddling interpretations.
Example 1:
Context: American novelist Jack Kerouac wrote a book. Warner Brothers offered $110k for the rights to turn it into a movie. But Kerouac's agent asked for $150k. Warner Brothers declined and the deal did not go through.
"Kerouac was mad at his agent because he thought he had queered the deal by asking too much"
(Source: On the road again, 2005)
(a) Forfeiture: Yes, (b) Imperil: No, (c) Superstition: No, (d) Meddling: Maybe
Example 2:
Context: A restaurant reviewer was at a pub called "Morrissey Pub". He needed to be at another bar at 9.30pm to write a review for it. However, he did not make it to the other pub in time for the following reason:
"[T]he bartender at the Morrissey Pub queered the deal by comping me a beer"
(Source: George Stroumboulopoulos: The Truth on TV, 2010)
(a) Forfeiture: Yes, (b) Imperil: No, (c) Superstition: No, (d) Meddling: No
Example 3:
Context: Blogger trying to sell their home
"[W]e already sold this house, last Sunday. Here we are again this Sunday, ZERO showings. You see, our buyer's investor group queered the deal. So that leaves us looking for a NEW buyer.
(Source: Looking Ahead, 2018)
(a) Forfeiture: Yes, (b) Imperil: No, (c) Superstition: No, (d) Meddling: No
Example 4:
Context: A 1930s religious group took offence at certain liberal Hollywood movies. The religious and Hollywood agencies have negotiated a deal that still needs to be passed. Hollywood was nervous and definitely wanted to pass the deal.
"Scared straight by Legion boycotts and New Deal threats, the members of the MPPDA Board sent instructions back to the moguls to do absolutely nothing to queer the deal. 'If Joe Breen tells you to change a picture, you do what he tells you.'"
(Source: Hollywood's Censor, 2009)
(a) Forfeiture: Maybe ('do nothing to forfeit the deal'), (b) Imperil: Maybe ('do nothing to imperil the deal') (c) Superstition: No, (d) Meddling: No
Example 5:
Context: The author criticizes hypocrisy in the Democratic party. There is no specific 'deal' mentioned. Rather, there is an abstract idea of pleasing voters, gaining support, becoming popular.
"Exposure of what they [=Democrats]'re saying among themselves about what they sell to the public threatens to queer the deal."
(Source: The Liberal War on Transparency, 2012)
(a) Forfeiture: Maybe ('threatens to forfeit the deal'), (b) Imperil: Maybe ('threatens to imperil the deal') (c) Superstition: No, (d) Meddling: No
(3) Conclusions
- There is no evidence that "queer the deal" has a superstitious association in any way. Hence, to jinx the deal is not an adequate alternative. This expression conveys a fundamentally different, mental, psychological rather than factual, efficacious, conceptualization of the cause for breaking a deal.
- Likewise, I cannot see any consistent evidence for the claim that "queer the deal" somehow involves meddling, the idea of last-minute modifications for one's own benefit, or exploitative strategies. Therefore, one should not replace the expression with sabotage the deal, stymie the deal either.
- In current English, "queer the deal" seems to be used in a relatively broad, general way - it simply means 'to forfeit a deal'.
(4) Proposed Alternative
Given the most common use of "queer the deal" demonstrated above, I would propose the following PC-alternative for the expression:
to blow the deal
- The phrase "to blow the deal" has the desired meaning, a forfeiture of a deal.
- The expression "to blow the deal" already sounds quite natural and idiomatic so that it would not upset speakers too much or sound artificial.
- The expression can easily replace "queer" in all the cited examples, including the paraphrase mentioned in the question: "I'm trying not to talk about it to not upset my negotiation so don't find me rude but I'd rather not go in to details." → "I don't wanna blow the deal."
- The words "queer" and "blow" share a similar register, both being quite colloquial, informal, slangy.
- The expressions also have a similar rate of use - both are extremely rare at a frequency of c. 0.1 instances per million words.
The graph from Google Ngram viewer summarizes: