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Is unforecasted correct English? Or should one use unexpected or some other form?

The relevant sentence would be : Parties short longevity are financially hurt by unforecasted increases in life expectancy

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    Have a look at he Help Center to find out about good questions. What does a dictionary tell you about those words?
    – Helmar
    Jul 28, 2016 at 13:27

5 Answers 5

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It could be either. "Unforecasted" implies that there has been some forecasting of increases in life expectancy, and the actual increase in life expectancy doesn't match the forecasts.

If there haven't been any forecasts of this type, then we shouldn't say "unforecasted".

"unexpected" is more simple and doesn't need any further explanation in this context, beyond its dictionary definition.

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I'd go for 'unprojected', 'unanticipated' or 'unforeseen'. Although 'unexpected' may be best.

NB: 'Parties short longevity' means parties that have a financial short-position in (or short-exposure to) longevity. They are effectively betting on longevity decreasing (perhaps for sub-populations), but were then wrong-footed when, for example, HIV/AIDS-medicine was developed. Or pension funds. It's finance lingo.

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  • Please explain why you "would go for" the words you've indicated and why "'unexpected' may be best.
    – TrevorD
    Jul 28, 2016 at 22:19
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"Unforecasted" works with budgets and forecast, where you are trying to indicate that something was not included in the forecast. for instance.

The covid pandemic has resulted in an unexpected increase in demand for read to eat products.

However if it should have been known,

The April budget for the new year did not include an unforecasted increase in ready to products.

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Unforecasted can be used to suggest that there has been a failure in the matter of forecasting. The increase in life expectancy should have been forecast, but wasn't. Unexpected works, but it has less suggestion of a failure and more suggestion of anomaly. So it depends on what you want.

It's another topic, but there are problems with Parties short longevity are as well. Is there a 'with' or 'of' missing after Parties?

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Both:

...are financially hurt by unforecasted increases in life expextancy.

and

... are financially hurt by unexpected increases in life expextancy.

are fine. Obviously, there is a difference in meaning between unforecasted and unexpected. The former implies some systematic attempt to predict whilst the latter is merely against our intuitive expectations.

What is strange to me is the first part of the sentence:

Parties short longevity ...

What on earth does this mean?

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