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I often encounter (and use) this phrase in a context meaning to weight more heavily during decision making than is sensible, or to focus more heavily during a discussion than is warranted. For example, "You're over indexing on the one time he failed; by & large he succeeds."

What is the origin of this phrase?

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    A quick glance through Google Ngrams for over-indexing suggests the term is only really used in the library-science and database sense, and infrequently in the "overweighting" sense. – Dan Bron Oct 9 '14 at 23:19
  • This seems to have changed in 2017. E.g. Gary Vaynerchuk uses it often in the wax that OP suggested. – mike Mar 9 '17 at 22:36

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