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When we see dark clouds, because of the situation now, we must say:

It's going to rain. Not It will rain.

Or when we see somebody is going toward the wall and can't see the wall in front of him, because of the situation now, we must say:

He is going to walk into the wall. Not He will.

Now, when we see shoes which are very well made, can we suppose this situation as a situation now-because we can see and get that these shoes are very well made- and say so:

These shoes are very well made. They are going to last a long time.

----Instead of:

These shoes are very well made. They will last a long time.

Raymond Murphy has used will in his book.

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    It's not imminent; it's a long term prediction. Either will work. – John Lawler Aug 25 '14 at 3:27
  • I was going to make a comment, but decided against it. Oh, wait, maybe I will make one. The sun will come up tomorrow. It's going to rain tomorrow. Are you sure? Yes, I think it will. – SrJoven Aug 25 '14 at 3:46
  • Sometimes one sounds better than the other. I can't tell when. – user85526 Aug 25 '14 at 6:16
  • Just a guess, could it be a choice based on aspect? – curiousdannii Aug 25 '14 at 6:36
  • The choice of verb (phrase) is nowhere near as neat and tidy as some imply. 'Do you think it's going to rain? and 'Do you think it will/'ll rain?' are virtually interchangeable in conversation here in the (NW) UK. 'I think it'll rain soon' is common; the 'padding' makes it sound far more normal. And I'd say that 'These shoes are very well made. They'll last a long time' would be easily the commoner choice. – Edwin Ashworth Aug 25 '14 at 8:01
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You can use 'will' here, but saying 'going to' indicates that you are guessing. To say 'you will win' is something more certain than 'you are going to succeed'.

After all, it literally means that you are headed into the outcome, not that there is a foregone conclusion. I can be going to the store, and never get there.

I am not sure it has to do with current situations in the now so much as the feeling of prediction from trajectory as opposed to intent or assurance.

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