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I often read sentences where the idea is "I would say" but it starts with "I guess". For example:

  • I would say he is not coming.
  • I guess he is not coming.

Do both have the same meaning?

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  • Though "I guess" is more familiar to me (US Midwest), "I would say" seems to imply the same thing, I'm speculating that he is not coming. If I knew for sure, I would say "He is not coming".
    – Kristina Lopez
    Commented Feb 25, 2013 at 23:10
  • I guess they do. :^) By the way, I noticed you haven't joined the newly-started site for English Language Learners yet. I would say that questions like this one might fare better there.
    – J.R.
    Commented Feb 25, 2013 at 23:16
  • @J.R.: I guess some would say you got your two usages the wrong way round, there. But I think it's Not Constructive to analyse exactly why!
    – FumbleFingers
    Commented Feb 25, 2013 at 23:20

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They have only very approximately the same meaning, in that both imply some degree of uncertainty and leave room for others or for facts-on-the-ground to contradict what follows.

  • I would say characterizes what follows as a personal opinion or judgment: From what I know of him I would say he is coming.

  • I guess characterizes what follows as a conjecture or inference: Well, if he were coming he'd be here by now, so I guess he's not coming.

But there's obviously room for some overlap: an opinion may be based on inference, and a conjecture may be based on opinion.

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  • Do you have any sources for this?
    – Adam_G
    Commented Jun 2, 2015 at 15:17
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    @Adam_G Nothing beyond 67 years of listening and reading.
    – StoneyB on hiatus
    Commented Jun 2, 2015 at 15:20

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