What is the term for the odds of someone dying by a given age if they are already some age?

For example, the odds of them living to 100 if they are currently 90, or the odds of living to 60 if they are currently 10.


The term death probability is used to reflect the odds of dying within one year of a given age.

Since you are talking about odds of dying over a multi-year period, it could be called cumulative death probability as in

The cumulative death probability of a 90 year old living to 100 is x.

I am unclear as to how this would be calculated. It is not simply the sum of the individual yearly probabilities.

The odds of living for that period could be called the longevity probability or the survival probability.


In Life Tables (also called Actuarial Tables, though that could apply to other tables of probabilities which have a similar accumulative effect; e.g. just as our chances of living a year affect our chances of living two, so does cumulative interest earned one year affect that earned the next), they are referred to just as "probability of dying" (or contrarily, they may talk of the "probability of surviving") in various cases, including:

Probability of dying between the age of 90 and 100.

E.g. Irish Life Tables from an Phríomh-Oifig Staidrimh and Intenational Life Tables from the WHO


Just plain life expectancy is also used in this context. For example, US tax regulations [see Appendix C] require you to make a taxable withdrawal ("required minimum distribution") from a retirement account based on your life expectancy recalculated each year. Obviously, you may outlive the government's original estimate, but you will not have been required to exhaust your assets.

(Disclaimer: This is not tax advice.)

  • That though is a different figure.
    – Jon Hanna
    Jan 29 '13 at 16:55

I think the most common way to talk about this is to say "life expectancy at x". For example, "life expectancy at 70 is 80", meaning that the average person who is currently 70 will live to be 80. Sometimes for clarity people will add "age", i.e. "life expectancy at age 70 is 80".

This isn't exactly what your question asks for, not sure if it helps.

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