Which day does “next Tuesday” refer to?
If it is November, how do you refer to the upcoming July? Is it "this July" or "next July"?
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This July would imply the current year's July, regardless of whether it is in the past or future.
This coming July always indicates future, regardless of year.
Use of a deictic word like this (or that, or next, or last, etc.) with a time word like July or month marks a case of Temporal Deixis, a phenomenon that was definitively explained in Fillmore's 1971 Santa Cruz Deixis Lectures.
Temporal deixis is treated in Lecture 4, Deixis I, but that lecture contains a number of references to the three previous lectures (1, "May We Come In?"; 2, Space; and 3, Time), so reading them in numeric order may be helpful.