Which day does “next Tuesday” refer to?
If it is November, how do you refer to the upcoming July? Is it "this July" or "next July"?
This July would imply the current year's July, regardless of whether it is in the past or future.
This coming July always indicates future, regardless of year.
Use of a deictic word like this (or that, or next, or last, etc.) with a time word like July or month marks a case of Temporal Deixis, a phenomenon that was definitively explained in Fillmore's 1971 Santa Cruz Deixis Lectures.
Temporal deixis is treated in Lecture 4, Deixis I, but that lecture contains a number of references to the three previous lectures (1, "May We Come In?"; 2, Space; and 3, Time), so reading them in numeric order may be helpful.