What is the past counterpart for “scenario”

Question

Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario) says

In this sense, scenarios should not be used to speculate on what has happened in the past.

Oxford advanced dictionary says

1. a description of how things might happen in the future.

So what pithy word should I use to describe an event that could have happened in the past?

Answer 1

Despite what Wikipedia may tell you, there is nothing preventing you from using scenario to refer to past events, especially if the actual circumstances are unknown or unclear: From NOAD:

scenario |səˈne(ə)rēˌō; -ˈnär-| noun ( pl. -os)
a written outline of a movie, novel, or stage work giving details of the plot and individual scenes : imagine the scenarios for four short stories.
• a postulated sequence or development of events : a possible scenario is that he was attacked after opening the front door.
• a setting, in particular for a work of art or literature : the scenario is World War II.

Note that the last two example usages concern themselves with past events.

Answer 2

What's wrong with "a scenario"?

Answer 3

Calling it a counterfactual is another possibility, historiographically speaking:

Counterfactual history, also sometimes referred to as virtual history, is a form of historiography which attempts to answer "what if" questions known as counterfactuals. It seeks to explore history and historical incidents by means of extrapolating a timeline in which certain key historical events did not happen or had an outcome which was different from that which did in fact occur.