Use of “Might” and “Might not”

Question

I know "Might" and "Might not" means the lack of certainty, but is there an implied probability in the use of these terms?

In other words, does "I might be coming" imply that "It is extremely likely I will be coming" or is it a case of "It is likely that I will be coming" or moving down even lower "It is feasible that I will be coming" ?

Is the situation identical with the use of "Might not" ? When someone says, "I might not be coming" what approximate probability level are we talking about regarding their "not coming"?

I realize this is a basic question -- sorry about that; Just was not sure about the usage.

Answer 1

The word "might" is used to express possibility in favor of something. Negating it expresses the opposite. Technically, "might" allows for the possibility of "might not" but it doesn't necessarily offer that as a possibility to be considered.

I might come to your party.

This gives the listener some hope that you will attend the party.

I might not come to your party.

This alerts the listener of the sad possibility that you will not attend.

Answer 2

I read "I might be coming..." to express the possibility but not necessarily the likelihood of attending, and "I might not be coming..." to express the opposite. If I wanted to express strong possibility, I would say "I will probably [not] be coming...". A lot depends on context; for example, "I might be coming, assuming I grow a second head" is not the same as "I might be coming, unless I get one of my infrequent migraines".

Answer 3

The probability or likelihood of something happening isn't just with the "might" or "might not" statement, but in the surrounding context. The speaker thinks the listener has a particular assumption and wishes to contradict it.

It might not rain.

When I say this it implies that I think we both understand there is a strong chance of rain. I haven't said very much yet about the new probability of rain. It may be a hope, or I may have new information.

On the other hand, if we'd both been aware of only predictions for good weather, it's hard to think it would make sense for me to say "It might not rain." You'd ask me if I was talking about the weather somewhere else or if I knew something you didn't. But "It might rain" would make sense, even just as a caution to bring an umbrella.

Take another example:

I might be home by 7:00.

If you require an exact answer from me, much as with "I might be coming," you'll have to wait, or insist that I be more specific. I'm not giving you very much information about my certainty with this one statement. But my statement again doesn't occur in a vacuum. My statement implies that the listener and I have an expectation about when I'll arrive home. If I was trying to arrive at 7 or at 8, that can change the meaning from something like "Don't count on me getting there on time" to "I could be early".

As Robusto pointed out (thanks!), the tone of voice can make a difference as well. For example, the listener and I could both have the same understanding - that I am trying to arrive by 7 - but I can say the same phrase and mean different things:

If I say "I might be home by 7:00" I could either be encouraging the listener to hope or, with a certain amount of doubt in the tone of voice, express the opposite.

So when as a speaker, I say

I might be coming

or

I might not be coming

it almost says more about what I think you, the listener, assume, than about what I (speaker) am actually going to do. I'm still unsure about what's going to happen, but I don't want you to get the wrong idea. I'll tell you "No, no, I might be coming" so you don't get the idea I've already decided not to go; I'll tell you "Actually, I might not be coming" so you don't think I've already committed and count on me to bring all the drinks.

Answer 4

"Might be" means the lack of certainty, as you know but about the probability of happening I doubt if there is a exact number, when someone says "I might be coming" means the probability of coming is more than not coming and vice versa. but in both cases the speaker is not sure about what he/she is going to do.

Hope my answer is understandable!

Answer 5

"Might" and "might not" are vaguer than some other phrases about how likely the event is, and usually mean an intermediate amount of probability. Very soft bounds would be that "I might be coming" is in roughly the 10% to 50% range, though those are very inexact (and of course vary from speaker to speaker and situation to situation). (In particular, "I might be coming" can easily extend a bit above 50%, though as the event becomes more likely, people will start saying things like "I'm probably coming" instead.)

On your list of phrases, "I might be coming" is a bit less likely than "It is likely that I am coming", but more likely than "It is slightly possible that I might be coming".