No, this sentence isn't correct in the obligatory modality. It is correct in the epistemic modality, and could mean:
- It's 10:30, and he is late, so I suppose that he is running to get here.
- It's 10:30, which is the time that he usually runs, so I suppose he is running now.
Both of these interpretations are a little unusual, but they are valid sentences. However, in the obligatory modality, the sentence must be intended to mean:
- It's 10:30, which is the time that he is required to run.
In this case, there are two better ways of writing the sentence:
- It's 10:30, he should be running now, why isn't he here?
- It's 10:30, he's supposed to be running now, why isn't he here?
However, "must" can be used with the present continuous in the obligatory sense, when speaking directly to the runner about the future: "If you want to get there at 10:35, you must be running at 10:30."